Book Reviews
Superforecasting Summary and Review
★★★★★ 4.5/5 — A rigorously researched case that accurate prediction is a learnable discipline of precise probabilities, relentless updating, and intellectual humility,…
Read Summary →Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
"The forecasting researcher and the science journalist who proved that predicting the future is a learnable skill, not a gift."
Philip E. Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the world's foremost researchers on the accuracy of expert judgment and forecasting. His earlier research project, spanning two decades and published as Expert Political Judgment, found that the average expert's predictions were barely better than chance — work that led him to co-found the Good Judgment Project, a forecasting tournament sponsored by U.S. intelligence research agency IARPA. That tournament identified a small group of "superforecasters" whose predictions dramatically outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified information. Dan Gardner is a journalist and author who specializes in translating research on risk, uncertainty, and decision-making for general audiences, including in his earlier book Future Babble. Together, Tetlock and Gardner turned the Good Judgment Project's findings into Superforecasting, published in 2015.
1 book featured·Professor, University of Pennsylvania·Co-founder, Good Judgment Project
Books by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
Our in-depth summaries and reviews of his work
Key Ideas & Recurring Themes
Forecasting accuracy is a learnable skill
In "Superforecasting," Tetlock and Gardner show that a small group of ordinary people using specific thinking habits consistently outpredicted experts and intelligence analysts.
Notable Quotes
"The humility required for good judgment is not the sort that is worn on one's sleeve... It is more a matter of intellectual humility, an awareness that reality is profoundly complex."— Superforecasting
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Superforecasting Summary and Review
★★★★★ 4.5/5 — A rigorously researched case that accurate prediction is a learnable discipline of precise probabilities, relentless updating, and intellectual humility, not a rare gift or a matter of credentials. Best for: analysts, strategists, investors, and anyone who has…