"Economist reframing AI as an economics problem, not just a technology one."
Ajay Agrawal is a professor of strategic management at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management and founder of the Creative Destruction Lab, a program that has helped launch hundreds of science-based startups. With longtime co-authors Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb, he has spent over a decade applying rigorous economic reasoning to artificial intelligence — first reframing AI as a drop in the cost of prediction in Prediction Machines, then examining why organizations struggle to capture that value in Power and Prediction. His work bridges academic economics and hands-on venture building, giving his writing an unusually practical edge for a professor's.
Our in-depth summaries and reviews of his work
Power and Prediction summary & review: Agrawal, Gans & Goldfarb's sequel to Prediction Machines argues the real AI payoff comes from redesigning…
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Prediction Machines by Agrawal, Gans & Goldfarb explains AI as a drop in the cost of prediction — and why human judgment…
Read Summary →Agrawal helped popularize the idea that AI is best understood as a drop in the cost of prediction, not "intelligence" in a human sense.
In Power and Prediction, he argues the real payoff from AI comes from redesigning entire decision systems, not bolting AI onto one step.
As founder of the Creative Destruction Lab, Agrawal has spent years helping science-based startups turn research into scalable ventures.
"The economics of AI are, at their core, the economics of prediction."— Prediction Machines
"A point solution is safe because it changes almost nothing — which is also why it rarely wins."— Power and Prediction
Power and Prediction summary & review: Agrawal, Gans & Goldfarb's sequel to Prediction Machines argues the real AI payoff comes from redesigning decision systems, not just cheaper predictions.
Prediction Machines by Agrawal, Gans & Goldfarb explains AI as a drop in the cost of prediction — and why human judgment becomes more valuable, not less. Summary, key concepts, and a 7-day plan.
